


Whatever Remains, However Improbably

by silveradept



Series: Rigging Random Chance [2]
Category: Miraculous Ladybug
Genre: Chloé Bourgeois Being Chloé Bourgeois, Chloé Bourgeois Deserves Those Black Eyes, Compliments Exercise, Creative Methods of Probability Manipulation, Gen, Mathematician's Answers, True Conclusions Are Not Always Accurate
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2019-08-23
Updated: 2019-08-23
Packaged: 2020-09-24 22:07:12
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 1,939
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/20365855
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/silveradept/pseuds/silveradept
Summary: Marinette knows for a fact that random chance is not that random. And especially not when it keeps putting her and Lila together for compliments.Caline helps Marinette draw correct conclusions, but not accurate ones.





	Whatever Remains, However Improbably

**Author's Note:**

  * For [AlexSeanchai](https://archiveofourown.org/users/AlexSeanchai/gifts).

"It's not possible!" Marinette groaned. "There's no way a random distribution of events would create a pattern like this!"

"It's improbable," Max said, shifting his glasses, "but it's not impossible."

"The probability of the events as you have recorded them is one in two hundred and ten on any given day. It is approximately one half-percent probable on any given day." Markov added. "It is no more or less probable than any other combination of students for the compliments exercise."

"That's not the pattern I'm talking about," Marinette said. "Look at this! Lila and I have been chosen as partners for the exercise way too many times to be random!"

"The average time between Lila-Marinette selections, regardless of who is selected to give or receive the compliment, is approximately two days," Markov remarked. "That is a significantly higher rate of selection than all other members of the class. Marinette's suspicions certainly warrant further observation."

"Thanks, Markov!" Marinette said, bounding back toward the school.

After she had gotten out of earshot, Max looked at Markov again. "Is it still improbable after we account for all the cheating?"

"Yes," Markov said. "Even accounting for the probability of Chloé being responsible for efforts to de-randomize the selection, the Marinette-Lila partnership is being chosen at a much higher rate than random chance."

* * *

The first time Marinette saw Sabrina sneak into Mme. Bustier's classroom at Chloé's direction, she thought about interference, but then she noticed Alix and Kim camped out just on the other side. Alix was looking at the door, waiting for Sabrina to leave. Kim, in addition to shielding Alix from everyone, seemed to be scanning the halls to see if anyone was coming. They had become a tight-knit team recently, having forged a bond over Alix giving Chloé a black eye for saying Alix should go to Neverland if she didn't want to grow up (Alix had recently started puberty blockers, and claimed they were responsible for mood swings, if not swinging fists.) and Ondine "accidentally" blackening the other one when she heard Chloé tell Sabrina that Ondine was wasting her time with the "Whatever" that wouldn't love her back. (Kim had started indicating Kim was thinking about new pronouns, and wanted a baseline of what it would be like if Kim didn't use pronouns at all.) Kim would have believed Ondine's story, Kim said, except Kim saw Ondine take a step back from the pool edge, a step that conveniently put the three-meter platform between herself and Chloé, before Chloé and Sabrina entered the pool proper.

Adrien had drawn Chloé the next day and flabbergasted everyone by giving Chloé a Queen Bee costume and telling her the mask had always looked good on her. It was the first akuma-free school day that week.

Mme. Bustier and Sabrina came out of the classroom, Sabrina looking much more relieved than when she had entered. Alix and Kim darted inside as soon as Mme. Bustier turned the corner.

Whatever it was they were doing, it didn't take long. Kim poked Kim's head out the door maybe a couple of minutes afterward, nodded, and the two casually strolled down the hallway from the classroom as if they hadn't engaged in an act of subterfuge. Or, more likely, sabotage.

That might explain some part of what was going on, but it definitely wouldn't explain all of it. Chloé still got chosen, despite her apparent intent to say exactly the wrong thing to everybody around her. If someone else kept getting rid of any attempts Sabrina made, they would almost certainly have gotten rid of Chloé as well.

Checking to see that the hallways were still empty, Marinette went over to Mme. Bustier's door. Alix and Kim had locked it after they left, so that would make it harder to find out what they had done. Marinette looked through the window of the room, trying to see if anything was obviously out of place. 

"You look like someone having deep thoughts, Marinette," Mme. Bustier said.

From behind her. 

"Would you like to talk about them?"

"Sure," Marinette said nervously.

* * *

"Have a seat, Marinette."

She'd surprised Marinette, that was certain. Since the door was locked, though, she knew Marinette hadn't done anything. Alix thought putting up enough deterrents would stop others from trying, so Alix and Kim had likely locked up after their latest attempt.

"What did you want to talk to me about?" 

It always made Caline's job easier when her students would actually say something to her. Right now, though, Marinette looked like she'd been caught with her hand in the cookie jar.

"I'm…having trouble coming up with nice things I can say about Lila." Marinette said. "Since we seem to be coming up so often in the exercise, I was wondering if you had some advice or knew something that Lila particularly wanted to have complimented?"

Fast recovery, Caline noted. She wouldn't have been able to come up with something that plausible that quickly when she was Marinette's age.

"I'm afraid not, Marinette," she said. "Lila has seen me even less often than you have."

"Since I'm having so much trouble," Marinette continued, "would it be possible for you to not call on us so much?"

"You know as well as I do that the compliments exercise is random, Marinette," Caline said.

Marinette's lip twitched slightly before smoothing itself back out. Marinette suspected something, then.

"Random must be really weird, then," Marintte said. "I feel like we're developing some sort of pattern."

Caline raised her eyebrows, as if this were new information to her. "Oh?"

"Max said Lila and I were trading compliments every two days on average."

"No wonder you're having such trouble," Caline said. "It's admirable that you and Lila have found so many nice things to say about each other."

Marinette froze. Caline knew Marinette had perfected the art of delivering a knife in the back with her compliments, matched only by Lila's ability to make everything she said about her more than it was about anybody else. Even though none of them could find a thing to genuinely compliment each other on, Caline had noticed Lila tended to talk about her achievements in life. Marinette, for her part, made it clear to everyone around how improbable it was that Lila could have done all the things she claimed to do. 

"Sure," Marinette muttered, punctuating it with a sharp laugh. "Nice things." Almost as soon as she had said it, Marinette reddened and looked away. 

Caline had seen Marinette go from confident to flustered before, usually when Adrien was around, and knew that if she pressed, Marinette would shut down completely. So, she waited.

"Why are we doing this exercise, Mme. Bustier?" Marinette asked, once her blush had subsided some. "Lila and I have never been nice to each other. But now we have to try and be nice to each other more than ever. Chloé never seems to change, even though she still gets picked to give or receive compliments. Just last week, she said something that got her two separate black eyes! And yet, the very next day, she gets a compliment from Adrien."

Caline's suspicions that Marinette was observant and smart were rapidly being proven in front of her. She worried Marinette might derail the plan entirely if she kept in this line of questioning.

"Sabrina…happy…Kim and Alex…unlocked."

Pieces were falling into place for Marinette so much that she started skipping words in her sentences. Caline had no idea where Marinette was and started composing her plea for Marinette to keep the secret she was about to land on.

"Mme. Bustier, it's not actually random selection, is it? You've been keeping track of who's having good days and bad days and why, and you…you let them try to cheat!"

Caline flashed Marinette a conspiratorial grin, hoping it covered her surprise at how close Marinette had come to finding the bullseye. The best thing to do now was to let Marinette come to her own conclusions, because it would be the only way she would believe them.

"And why would I do that?" Caline said, mock-innocently.

"Because…it's harmless revenge," Marinette said, snapping her fingers. "It lets someone do something, rather than stew in their negative feelings." Marinette cocked her head at Caline.

"And?" Caline prompted. Caline could see the gears turning in her head as she went down the road she'd laid for herself. Marinette must be terrifying when she was interested in a subject, Caline concluded. She made a note to visit M. and Mme. Dupain-Cheng and ask if hyperfocus was a family trait.

"If they can do something, it dispels negative feelings, and it makes them less likely to catch an akuma." Marinette concluded. "You let them cheat because the alternative is much worse."

Caline nodded.

"Which means…I should probably keep this to myself, shouldn't I?" Marinette said.

Caline nodded again. "I would appreciate it if you did. As you said, it's harmless, and I think your classmates enjoy the feeling that they're getting away with something they think I don't notice. But, since you've discovered the reasons, it's up to you to expose them or not."

That wasn't really fair, Caline thought to herself. Marinette was extremely invested in the happiness and well-being of her friends. The possibility of telling Chloé that all of her efforts were for nothing wouldn't be good enough for her to expose the enterprise, and Caline knew it.

Even so, Marinette thought about it for far longer than Caline expected her to, before shaking her head and smiling.

"Thank you for trusting me," she said, standing up. "I've taken up enough of your time. See you in class!"

This complicates things, Caline thought as Marinette bounded out the door. As much as she wanted to keep digging, she might have to let Marinette and Lila rest for a bit. Long enough for Marinette to see some of the others at work and satisy herself that was all that was going on.

She'd missed something important, thankfully, in her conclusions. It was apparent to Caline that Marinette and Lila had the same dynamic that the rest of the class had with Chloé. The compliments exercise wasn't just about saying nice things to each other, it was specifically a release valve for the tensions that built up in class. One well-placed compliment had been enough on several days to defuse a classroom explosion right before it went off. There was usually an uptick in interference with selection right after Chloé said something particuarly clueless, but these days it rarely resulted in a purple butterfly. 

The obvious solution, of course, would be to remove Chloé from the class, but Mayor Bourgeois had repeatedly proven his daughter (and his wife) had him wrapped around their little fingers, and M. Damocles had left nothing to the imagination on whose side he would take if it were Chloé against anyone, student or teacher. 

Caline sighed. She needed to get ready for class, and to figure out new strategies for applying her own influence to the compliments exercise. Now that Marinette knew what to look for, she was going to have to be even more subtle in how she arranged things.

Caline smiled. It had been more than a few years since she had a student observing her craft. Some of her best tricks were getting rusty from disuse, but if Marinette continued on this path, Caline would have to be at her best to keep her from discovering the rest of the truth. She was looking forward to the challenge.


End file.
